Employment

Michigan Unemployment Benefits Made Easy

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Michigan Unemployment Benefits Explained

The State of Michigan is facing tough times. With rising unemployment and the often complex unemployment benefits system, mistakes are being made and workers are wrongfully being denied their unemployment benefit payments. With new developments in unemployment laws and the federal stimulus package, unemployment benefits in Michigan are worth more than ever. For some beneficiaries, benefits can reach 72 weeks and nearly $30,000.

If an initial claim for unemployment benefits is denied, it is important for an unemployed worker to understand why they were denied, and what they can do to request a re-determination or appeal to protect their rights and get a proper and just determination. This article addresses the basic framework and is intended to help the Michigan unemployment applicant understand the process. In difficult situations, experienced legal representation may be essential.

The Unemployment Application Process in Michigan

During their first week of unemployment, unemployed workers are asked to visit the Michigan Unemployment Insurance Agencys website at: http://www.michigan.gov/uia, the website is available to file new unemployment claims Monday Saturday from 7am to 7pm. There is also a telephone option: 1-866-500-0017. Unless instructed otherwise by Unemployment Agency staff, applicants must register within two to three business days at their local Michigan Works! Agency to upload a resume to the Michigan Talent Bank.

First time applicants will receive in the mail the following items:

–A determination showing the amount of weekly benefits and the number of weeks they may receive based on the wages earned.
–A booklet with detailed information about their rights and responsibilities for unemployment benefits.
–If there is an eligibility issue with their claim, they will receive a separate notice.

The unemployment claim process starts with an initial determination by the Unemployment Agency as to whether the applicant is eligible. Provided the applicant was fully employed in an eligible job, the agencys determination is based on two questions: whether the separation from employment was voluntary and, if not, whether the employment termination was based on misconduct. The initial determination is a first look and is not often without mistakes.

Unfortunately, mistakes in the initial unemployment determination are common. The most common mistakes involve inappropriate assumptions about a resignation or overreaching claims of misconduct in employer challenges. Often, employers challenge the benefits based on general performance issues or tardiness, issues not considered to be misconduct under the unemployment law. Misconduct under the employment laws is meant to be a limited category related to outright theft, misrepresentation or workplace drunkenness, not generalized performance issues.

When it comes to voluntary termination of employment, mistakes are often based on assumptions when employees resign just to protect their record, when in fact, many employees resign only involuntarily and only because they have been told their job is ending. Such resignations are not voluntary under the Michigan unemployment laws and should not be used to deny benefits.

Basic Requirements for Michigan Unemployment Benefits

The Michigan unemployment agency looks at the unemployed workers earnings in the first four out of the past five completed calendar quarters to determine if they are eligible for benefit payments. If they do not qualify under the standard base period they will then be reexamined using the four most recent quarters called the alternate base period. There is one last section to determine qualifications that the unemployed worker will have to certify with the State of Michigan. According to the UIA website, To be eligible for unemployment benefits, you must be unemployed and able to, available for, and actively seeking suitable full-time work. Some may worry that if they left their previous employer by turning in a resignation that they would be exempt from unemployment benefits. Although initial unemployment determinations may result in a denial of benefits, the fact of a resignation should not result in a denial, if it is involuntary.

The Process for Unemployment Beneficiaries Explained

Once qualified with an approved claim, the unemployed worker must continually certify their unemployed status with the State of Michigan every other week. The unemployed worker is expected to report to the UIA through the use of the Internet or telephone using Michigans Automated Response Voice Interactive Network, (MARVIN). A scheduled MARVIN appointment is based on the last two digits of their Social Security number. To access MARVIN via the Internet, unemployment beneficiaries can visit http://www.michigan.gov/uia and select the UIA Online Services for Unemployed Workers link. A free UIA online account can be created. MARVIN can also be reached at 1-866-638-3993, to find out scheduled times, beneficiaries can visit http://www.michigan.gov/uia.

How Much Will Michigan Unemployment Beneficiaries Receive and How?

Once approved and certified, it is important to know how the UIA determines the amount of unemployment benefit payment and how to receive it. During the unemployment application process, the UIA will ask the unemployed workers to select a choice of payment through either a state issued debit card or direct deposit into their personal bank account. To determine the specific amount of benefit payments, the UIA staff multiplies the highest amount of wages paid in any base period quarter by 4.1%. For each dependant claimed, the UIA adds $6 per dependant up to five. Currently, the weekly benefit amount is capped at a maximum of $362.

To determine how many weeks of benefits are available to an unemployed worker, the UIA multiplies total base period wages by 43% and then divides that answer by a weekly benefit amount. The initial benefit cannot be less than 14 weeks or more than 26 weeks. However, many emergency changes to the process have resulted in a series of extensions for unemployment beneficiaries. For some, benefits may extend up to 72 weeks. The new federal stimulus package may also include subsidy for extended COBRA benefits for some beneficiaries.

Special Emergency Extensions Available to Michigans Unemployed Workers

In recent developments, the Federal Government has provided an extension of benefits under the Emergency Unemployment Compensation (EUC), which includes a 20 week extension upon the initial state benefit period. The second part of the EUC is an additional 13 week extension upon that. In addition, Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm signed an extension benefit for an additional 13 weeks as of February 13th, 2009. Therefore, the total of available weeks of unemployment benefits that unemployed workers may receive would equal 72 weeks. The unemployment agency is responsible for notifying those eligible for the extensions when they are approaching the end of their initial claim.

What to Do If Michigan Unemployment Benefits are Denied or Challenged

The Michigan unemployment process is complex and has many layers. The agencys first decision is called a determination. After that the employer or the employee has 30 days to challenge the determination and request a redetermination. If either side is not satisfied, they are given an additional amount of time to request an appeal, to be heard by an administrative law judge at the unemployment agency.

For both sides, the appeal will be the first chance to present evidence and take testimony. After the appeal, challenges may go on to a board of review and then to Michigans court system. The biggest mistake people make is to give up on the process too early or to allow deadlines to pass. Employees often lose their rights sometimes worth over $20,000 simply by missing the deadlines. Sometimes, employers succeed by making continuous challenges and waiting for the employee to give up.

Other times employees may lose because they did not prepare for the appeal, or they are not adequately represented when they get there. When it comes to an appeal, many employees lose because they are not prepared to give testimony at the hearing or they are not represented. Simple steps can be taken to protect unemployment appeal rights. Unemployment advocates are available free of charge through the agency and some private employment attorneys are willing represent individuals in the unemployment process for a flat fee. Whatever they do, beneficiaries should never let their unemployment agency deadlines lapse with out seeking qualified legal advice.

Applying for a Job – Run Pre Employment Check on Yourself to Mark Success!

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Over 90% of companies run background checks on applicants-.

Unemployment is soaring. Many employers have already seized new hiring ventures and very few jobs are available. Despite a very modest improvement in recent months, the job market is still hovering around 9.5% unemployment, unthinkable four years ago. In most fields and industries, competition for the best jobs is almost overwhelming.

Is there anything a common job seeking person can do to stand out from the unemployed crowd? Actually, there is a way by which you can mark your primal success over your competitor candidate and how it’s going to be happen, when you run your own background employment check before applying a job.

The question arises in every job seeking mind that how running an employment check upon yourself might help in getting a prospective job career. So it is simply because, first it enables you to find out if any erroneous information is being reported about you. And second, it reassures potential employers that the qualifications you present in your job application are true and correct. A study conducted by a human resource and recruiting firm stated that as many as 44% of the resumes and job applications contain inaccuracies or outright deceptions.

Every single employer is now conducting a background check or employment check before hiring. The fact you have presented your own self-background- employment check suggests that a problem is not likely to crop up when the employer runs its own background check. In other means, it can double your chances for being hired as employer will not be able to uncover something which will cause him/her to have to disqualify you at end of hiring process thereby wasting company time and resources.

What’s more, as said, if by chance there is some mistake being made in compiling your background check, for example, a State is erroneously reporting you have a criminal record when if fact you don’t, running your own background check will alert you to this problem so you can take steps to correct it before an employer sees it.

Bottom Line: This may be a good preemptive strategy in today’s killer job market. But how do you go about it? Let’s have a look at it through these simple easy steps to opt for a employment check.

There are four essential pre employment background checks that you can run on yourself are as follows;

1.Education: Pre employment background checks

2.Credit Record or History Checks

3.Employment Criminal background checks

4.Social Security Number Trace

Education Background Check Made Easy:

Education background checks is one of the most essentials checks employers perform as employment checks. Strict credentialing practices are used to verify your university/college accreditations, your study time (attendance and date of admission/passing out) and sometimes your grades are also verified.

When verifying your own university/college degree, the first place you want to look is The National Student Clearinghouse. They run the automated database that provides degree verification very quickly.

Typically, colleges and universities provide education verification over the telephone. You can contact your institution administration/registrar office to confirm the accreditation of university/college with accreditation authorities. Then you can double check your admission/passing out dates as well as your grades.

If your institution cannot find your degree or the name on degree is changed to your current name, (an unusual situation, but it might happen), you have to take care of the problem. You will probably need to fax the school a copy of your diploma or any other documentation you have, to remove the chances of being debugged.

Credit Records or History Pre Employment Background Checks:

Be aware of what is on your credit report, especially if you think a prospective employer might check it. That way, if there are inaccuracies on the report, you can take steps to correct them.

Employers are very keen to know about your credit histories as it can easily predict your future in their organization. So it’s feasible to run a credit history employment check on yourself by adopting these four basic precautions.

Contact your bank and ask them for your credit report.

If you find any mistake or discrepancy, point out and correct it right away.

Make your bank to certify you for clean credit history.

After these 3 steps to resurrection, you can notify your prospective employer of the inaccuracies and of the steps you have taken to correct them.

Criminal Background Checks as Employment Checks:

Employers want to know about your background, and you can be assured that they will check to see if you have a criminal history.

The best source of a complete criminal background employment check is the Department of Justice for your state. If you have a criminal record in multiple states, you will need to contact each state’s Department of Justice. You can also get a copy of your criminal record from the court where your case(s) went to court.

These local records are found in courthouses and police departments, you can also look in specialized searches which include the Terrorist Watch List, the Federal Wanted Persons List, and Sex Offender Registries. Most of these records are contained in large databases that are updated on a regular basis.

Criminal background checks be best searched by hand at the county/states level, with full names, date of birth, should be used as much as possible to confirm a positive identification.

Social Security Number Trace

An applicant’s social security number is used throughout the pre-employment screening process, checking your validity of the number accomplish several things.

It confirms that the number belongs to you and it provides a list of current and previous addresses, as well as other names used.

Make sure each numeral is clearly written so no one has to try and decipher your handwriting.

If you had reason to change your SSN, provide both numbers and add a brief note explaining why you had to change your number. Also, indicate when you started using the newer SSN.

This verification also provides other last names associated with the SSN and a list of previous addresses.

Drawn Conclusion and Recommendations:

The strategy is simple. Get your own employment check report done, and then offer it to an employer as a way of reassuring him that you’re on the up-and-up. This is not at all an uncommon practice these days. You can attach a printed copy of your Self-Check Employment Screening Report to your resume.

Not everyone knows what happens during a pre-employment screening. In fact, most people know very little about it. So, Consider hiring a specialize pre employment background checks company or try to check your background online with authentic sources and public record portals, they are extremely helpful and can easily detect you out of everywhere; they are reliable, cost effective and time saving.

The author of this researched article is a professional writer indulged in writing for changing trends in background screening and employment check industry, its evolution & development in the online world.

Understanding The Definition Of Employment At Will

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Like with most legal jargon, “employment at will” has both a formal definition and a practical one. In this case, the theory is easy. The basic definition of “employment at will” says the employer or the employee may end the working relationship at any time and for any reason without fearing legal action. This means the employer can fire or lay off the employee whenever they want. According to the theory, the employers do not have to explain why they fired their worker.

This definition also claims the employee may choose to quit his or her job at any time. Under such circumstances, the worker does not have to give the employer the reason for leaving his or her current position.

On its face, this is a simple law that should work for both the employer and the employee. Unfortunately in practice, “employment at will” is not so clear. While most states follow the formal definition, many lower courts have passed laws to cancel the employer’s rights. All of these laws have created many exceptions to the formal definition, and employers must keep this in mind if they need to fire someone.

Definition of Employment at Will: What It Means For Employers

So what does this mean for you, the employer, if you need to fire an underperforming employee? It’s simple. Wise employers do not fire employees without a reason and claim protection under “employment at will”. This is true even if you live in an “at will” state.

Almost every “at-will” state has exceptions an employer must consider. To make the situation more complex, these exceptions vary widely from state to state. It is a good idea to contact your state’s labor office to find out the laws that apply to you.

If you fire an employee and that person becomes angry, you could find yourself in a wrongful termination lawsuit. And as an employer, you don’t want these legal proceeding to go to court. Most courts favor the employee. This leaves the employer at the losing end and that costs time, money and productivity.

So how do you avoid such lawsuits? It’s a good idea for all employers to have standard termination procedures in place.

First, make sure you have an employee handbook with rules and regulations of the workplace. All employees must be aware of its contents. Second, make sure no manager fires an employee without giving a reason. Third, have standards in place so the reasons for termination are legal and fair. Fourth, train all managers in progressive discipline. Using this proven method, an employee termination will never take a worker by surprise. This will reduce their overall anger at the company.

It is true that “employment at will” suggests an employer doesn’t own an employee an explanation for losing his or her job. However, this simple definition does not translate directly into practice. Never depend on the formal definition of this law to protect you from a wrongful termination lawsuit.

employment attorney Orange County California Whistleblowers

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Many California employees contact us to find out if they are entitled to “whistleblower” protection. Both state and federal laws protect persons who report illegal activity by their employers says employment attorney Orange County. To be protected, an employee usually only has to have a “reasonable but mistaken belief” that illegal activity is afoot. In California, whistleblowers are protected by Labor Code 1102.5 which prohibits retaliation against an employee who complains about illegal activity. This is a very tough law for employers to prevail on, since the very next code section (1102.6) provides that the burden of proof is on the employer to prove by clear and convincing evidence that the whistleblowing about illegal activities had nothing to do with the adverse employment action.

According to employment lawyer Orange County, an employee can claim retaliation under the federal qui tam laws, where it is shown that the whistleblower was discharged, demoted, or discriminated against because of lawful acts done in furtherance of a false claims investigation. If the relator basically violates confidentiality and removes tens of thousands of documents indiscriminately, in order to later prove a qui tam case, there will probably be a finding of non-protected activity and the loss of the right to bring a retaliation action under the federal law.

When a whistleblower actually sues his or her former employer on behalf of the government for monies lost by the government, it must be shown that the government was actually defrauded and lost money says employment attorney Oakland. The federal false claim act is found at 31 United State Code 3729. A recent case illustrates some of the differences in “reasonable but mistaken” (sufficient to support a wrongful termination claim) and actual false billings. In this case the plaintiff contended that her employer withheld disclosure of new inventions from the government, stating that the contract with the company provided that the government owned the inventions. As the government would have had the right to license and sell these new inventions, the theory of the employee went, the United States was defrauded by not having that right of sale. Unfortunately for the plaintiff, she was unable to allege that the employer ever sought payment from the government and had not submitted a “false claim”.

Employment attorney San Diego says that false claims take many forms such as fraudulent use of a receipt; unauthorized purchase of government property or use of a “false record or statement” to avoid payment to the government. Another recent case held that a request for reimbursement that falsely implied compliance with federal rules might constitute a false claim. “Reverse false claims” are also actionable. In one such case, the defendant company falsely represented the value of some aircraft metals as “scrap”, whereas in fact it was worth several million dollars. A false claim was properly stated. Finally, it’s important to determine if the false claim was in a “condition of participation” or a “condition of payment”. No false claim is usually stated if the defendant accused of defrauding the govenment is simply falsely certifying compliance (such as non-discrimination) with a federal program or is actually billing falsely.

Financial rewards for whistleblowers can be huge! Under California state laws, up to 30% can be awarded to the whistleblower. Routinely, about 15-20% is awarded in federal false claims actions.

As always, this blog is educational in nature and legal advise can only be given by an experienced attorney in your jurisdiction.

After 1 Year, Obama Vs. Reagan

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As we approach the end of the year, we are also approaching the end of President Obamas first year in office. You might be wondering how he is doing, based on actual numbers (rather than political spin).

Obama clearly inherited a difficult situation economically. Only two others in the modern era came even remotely close. One, of course, was FDR, but unfortunately the data from then is rather sparse, and mostly available on just an annual basis, or at best quarterly (good economic data was one of the by-products of the New Deal).

The other who inherited a difficult economic situation was President Reagan. Granted, the type of difficulty was very different under Reagan, and presidents — like quarterbacks — get too much of both the praise for a good economy and the blame for a bad economy.

Still, I think comparing the numbers for the two during their first “year in office could be instructive. The data I used for the comparison are all available monthly (at least, and if more frequently, I used the monthly data). The source of all data is the St. Louis Fed (except for the S&P 500).

The two presidents offered very different prescriptions for the economy. Reagan was all about cutting taxes and less government involvement in the economy. While most of the really big moves of government into the economy in response to the recent economic crisis actually took place under President George W. Bush, Candidate Obama saw them as needed. The Bush Administration was the one that bought the stakes in American International Group (AIG – Snapshot Report), Fannie Mae (FNM – Snapshot Report), Freddie Mac (FRE – Analyst Report) and the banks, while Obamas support for a prepackaged bankruptcy resulted in large government stakes in the Auto industry.

There were no comparable big investments by the government into the private sector late in the Carter Administration, and certainly Reagan did not initiate any. Reagan did not have to deal with a financial meltdown when he took office, but on the other hand, Obama did not have to deal with runaway inflation. Both are serious diseases, but think of it this way: both cancer and heart disease can kill you, but you would not want to give chemotherapy drugs to a heart attack patient. Thus, perhaps it is appropriate that the prescriptions be different.

If one only looks at the unemployment rate (U-3), both did a poor job in their first year, and Obama was significantly worse. The unemployment rate in January 2009 was 7.6% and by November it had climbed to 10.0%. In January 1981, when Reagan took office, the unemployment rate was almost identical at 7.5%, and by November of 1981 it had climbed to only 8.3%.

Private employment actually rose during the first 11 months of 1981 by 0.55%, from 74.671 million to 75.084 million. Under Obamas tenure so far, private payrolls have dropped by 2.95% to 108.495 million from 111.793 million.

So on the employment front, Reagan is the clear winner so far. However, over the course of 1982 and 1983 the employment situation deteriorated significantly. We do not know what unemployment will do in 2010 and 2011, and thus can only judge based on what we have seen so far and in the comparable period under Reagan.

Advantage: Reagan

Reagan also wins when it comes to real disposable personal income, which expanded by 2.3% in the first 11 months Reagan was in office, while it has only increased by 1.0% so far under Obama.

Advantage: Reagan

The dollar was also much stronger during the first 11 months of Reagan, although I am not sure if that is a positive or a negative. During the first 11 months of Reagan, the dollar relative to an index of major currencies gained 9.88%, while under Obama, the dollar has lost 9.70% relative to the same index.

Given that we are running chronic trade deficits now, but really were not back then, I would argue that today a weak dollar is good for the economy today since it will help out on the net export side of things. Inflation is not a big problem today, but was the number one problem with the economy when Reagan took office. The downside of a weak dollar is that it contributes to inflation, so back then having the dollar strengthening was a good thing.

No Advantage to Either

On the inflation front, however, things are far better under Obama. On a headline basis, prices have gone up by 2.39% so far under Obama, while they rose 7.57% during the first 11 months that Reagan was in office. On a core basis (ex-food and energy) the difference is even more stark, rising 8.31% under Reagan and up just 1.51% under Obama so far. Later in the Reagan Administration, inflation fell much more, but even when he left office in 1989 inflation was far higher than it is today.

Advantage: Obama

Industrial production fell slightly more during the first 11 months of Reagan (1.07%) than it has under the first 11 months of Obama (0.68%). Capacity Utilization started out at a much lower level when Obama took the oath than the Reagan did, at 71.1% (an all-time record low at the time) vs. 80.7% when Reagan took office. However, by November of 1981, the total capacity utilization rate had fallen to 77.9%. Under Obama, capacity utilization has actually risen to 71.3%, although it remains at a historically low level.

Advantage: Obama

Interest rates can tell a lot about the state of the economy. For example, the spread between the rate that gilt-edged companies have to pay on their bonds and what normal companies have to pay on their bonds tells a lot about how much bond investors fear companies going belly up. The former is measured by the Moodys (MCO – Analyst Report) Aaa rate and the later by the Baa rate (not to be confused with “junk bond” rates; Baa is still investment grade).

In January of 1981, the best credits in America had to pay 12.81% on their bonds, while normal companies had to pay 15.03%, for a spread of 2.22% (or as a ratio, normal companies had to pay 17.3% more than the gilt-edged ones). By November of 1981, both the best and the ordinary had to pay more — the Aaa rate had surged to 14.22% while the Baa rate had risen to 16.39%, so the spread had fallen ever-so-slightly to 2.17. The ratio had come down a bit more, and the ordinary firms were paying 15.3% more than the best firms.

When Obama took office, the Baa rate was 8.14% while the Aaa rate was 5.05%, for a spread of 3.09. In other words, ordinary firms had to pay 61.2% more for money than the best firms did. Investors were very afraid that companies would go bankrupt, and so demanded a higher rate from normal companies than from firms that seemed to have very little risk of writing a new chapter (the eleventh) in their corporate histories.

Since then, the rate the highest-rated firms have to pay has actually increased slightly to 5.19% while the rate that normal firms have to pay has plunged to 6.32%, bringing the spread down to 1.13% and the ratio down to the point where normal companies are paying 21.8% more for their money than the Aaa firms.

(Given the huge difference in the overall level of interest rates between the two eras, it is important to look at both the spreads and the ratios. Clearly a spread of 2% has a very different meaning and significance if it is between 1% and 3% than if it is between 13% and 15%).

Advantage: Obama

Another important signal that comes from interest rates is the yield curve, or the difference between long-term and short-term interest rates. The curve is measured using Treasury notes or bills, since you only want to be looking at the differences due to maturity, not due to quality (the opposite of the Aaa-Baa spread, which is only looking at quality differences, not maturity differences).

While there are many different measures of the curve, the one that is used the most is the difference between the 2-year note and the 10-year note. Generally speaking, the steeper the yield curve, the better. An inverted yield curve is very bad news, and is probably the best single indicator that the economy is about to go into a recession.

When Reagan entered office, the 10-2 curve was inverted, with the yield on a 2-year note at 13.26% and the yield on the 10-year at 12.57%, for a spread of -0.69. On a ratio basis, the 10-year was providing only 0.95 of the 2-year. By the time November of 1981 rolled around, the curve had returned to normal but was still pretty flat. The yield on the 2-year had fallen to 12.88%, while the yield on the 10-year had increased to 13.39, resulting in a positive curve of 0.51. On a ratio basis, the 10-year was 1.08 of the 2-year.

When Obama entered office, the 2-year was at a very low 0.81% while the 10-year was 2.52%, for a positive spread of 1.71%. On a ratio basis, the 10-year was yielding over three times as much as the 2-year (3.11x to be exact). By the end of November, the curve had expanded even further, with the 2-year virtually unchanged at 0.80%, while the yield on the 10-year had risen to 3.40%, for a spread of 2.60% and a ratio of 4.25x. Again, given the vastly different overall levels of rates, it is important to consider both the spreads and the ratios when making the comparisons.

Advantage: Obama

Mortgage rates were both far higher and moving in the wrong direction early in the Reagan presidency. When he took office they were at 14.90%, and by November they had risen to 17.83%. When Obama took office, the rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was 5.06% and has since fallen to 4.88%.

Not surprisingly, then, the housing market was far worse under Reagan than it has been under Obama (at least if measured by direction, not levels). In January of 1981, housing starts were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.547 million, and by November of that year they had plunged to 837,000, a decline of 45.9%. Since January of 2009, housing starts have risen from an annualized rate of 488,000 to a rate of 574,000 in November, an increase of 17.6%.

Advantage: Obama

Similarly, single family new home sales plunged by 25.2% early in the Reagan years to a rate of 382,000. Since Obama came into office, new single family home sales have risen by 22.2% to an annualized rate of 402,000. Existing home sales are not particularly important to the economy (just like used car sales are not very important).

Auto sales also fared worse under the early part of the Reagan Administration than they have so far under Obama (at least as measured point-to-point). When Reagan took office, auto and light truck sales were running at an annualized rate of 11.03 million and had fallen to 9.21 million, a decline of 16.5%. Under Obama, auto and light truck sales have risen from an annualized rate of 9.59 million in January to a rate of 10.89 million in November, an increase of 13.6%.

Advantage: Obama

Finally, while people sometimes make too much of the day-to-day fluctuations in the stock market, it is a good reflection of the overall health of the economy when you look at longer time periods — and almost a year is long enough to qualify there. On that metric, there is simply no contest. Between inauguration day and Christmas Eve in 1981, the S&P 500 lost 7.65%. Since Obama took office, the S&P 500 has gained 39.9%.

Advantage: Obama

Weighing these different economic indicators is inherently subjective, and thus I am not sure that one can come to a clear-cut case that one has done a better job than the other — at least so far. This is also far from a complete list of economic indicators and I focused on only those that were available at least monthly, and many of the most important economic numbers come out quarterly.

Arguably, the economic mess that Obama inherited was worse than the one that Reagan inherited, although both were pretty nasty — yet very different. The U.S. economy is more of an oil tanker than a speedboat, and does not turn around on a dime, so it really is too early to tell how Obama is doing.

However, the indicators that are most forward-looking and leading for the economy (stock market, yield curve and quality spreads, housing starts) are the ones that favor Obama over Reagan. Overall, 11 months in, one must conclude that Obama is doing at least as good a job on the economy as Reagan did in his first 11 months.